U.S. online holiday sales are projected to reach $253.4 billion in 2025, representing a 5.3% increase year-over-year, according to a new report from Adobe's e-commerce connected division, Adobe Analytics. The forecast underscores the growing influence of digital platforms and emerging technologies on consumer spending patterns.
Adobe Analytics derives its predictions from an extensive analysis of over one trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, encompassing 100 million SKUs across 18 product categories. The company's analytics software is utilized by a majority of the top 100 online retailers in the U.S., providing deep insights into online shopping and consumer behavior.
The report forecasts Cyber Monday to remain the largest shopping day of the year, with sales expected to climb 6.3% year-over-year to $14.2 billion. Black Friday is also predicted to see significant growth, increasing 8.3% year-over-year to $11.7 billion. Online spending on Thanksgiving Day is anticipated to reach $6.4 billion, a 4.9% rise year-over-year, indicating an early start to online sales activities.
A key driver for this season's sales is the anticipated surge in generative AI-powered shopping. Adobe predicts AI traffic to rise by 520% year-over-year, peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving. This follows a 1,300% increase in AI traffic to U.S. retail sites observed in 2024. Based on a survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers, 53% indicated they might use AI services for research ahead of purchases, 40% for recommendations, 36% for deal finding, and 30% for gift inspiration. AI use is expected to be most prevalent in categories such as toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care.
Additional trends contributing to the projected growth include consumer demand for discounts, with products expected to be offered at an average of 28% off listed prices. Mobile devices are also set to drive a record 56.1% share of online spend, up from 54.5% in the previous year. Furthermore, Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services are projected to facilitate $20.2 billion in online spend, an 11% increase year-over-year, with Cyber Monday BNPL spend alone expected to reach $1.04 billion. Social media advertising is forecast to drive a 51% year-over-year increase in online revenue, a substantial rise from the 5% growth reported in 2024.
Top categories for overall spending include electronics, projected at $57.5 billion (up 4% year-over-year), apparel at $47.6 billion (up 4.4% year-over-year), and furniture, estimated at $31.1 billion (up 6.5% year-over-year).
