Prominent roboticists and venture capitalists are expressing skepticism regarding the immediate market readiness and extensive deployment of humanoid robots, despite substantial investment inflows into the sector. Rodney Brooks, founder of iRobot, recently outlined concerns about an "investment bubble" in the humanoid robot space in an essay, suggesting that current humanoid designs may struggle to achieve the dexterity required for widespread utility.
Brooks's perspective, which asserts that billions in venture capital have flowed into companies like Figure without a clear path to fine motor skill development, aligns with observations from several robotics-focused VCs and AI scientists. These experts, speaking to TechCrunch, indicate that broad adoption of humanoid robots may be years, potentially even more than a decade, away.
Fady Saad, General Partner at Cybernetix Ventures and former co-founder of MassRobotics, articulated concerns about the limited immediate market for humanoids beyond specialized applications like space exploration. Saad expressed skepticism regarding the "actual use case and the actual revenues that will be generated," citing safety as a significant hurdle. He noted potential risks associated with humanoids operating alongside humans in industrial settings or within homes, particularly concerning physical harm and cybersecurity vulnerabilities.
The timeline for advanced humanoid development remains ambiguous. Sanja Fidler, Vice President of AI Research at Nvidia, compared the current excitement surrounding humanoids to the early days of self-driving cars, highlighting the extended period required for scaled deployment. Seth Winterroth, a partner at Eclipse, emphasized the complexity of humanoids, noting their "60 plus degrees of freedom systems" compared to simpler "six degrees of freedom systems," which complicates software releases and unit economics necessary for enduring businesses. Nvidia chief scientist Bill Dally also echoed these sentiments, despite Nvidia's investment in humanoid infrastructure.
Challenges in bringing humanoids to market have been publicly observed. Tesla, which announced its Optimus humanoid in 2021, initially projected a 2023 introduction, a timeline that was not met. At its 2024 "We, Robot" event, Optimus units were reportedly controlled by humans off-scene, with sales now anticipated in 2026. Robotics startup Figure, valued at $39 billion in a September funding round, has also faced scrutiny regarding the actual number of deployed humanoids, a claim the company has defended.
Despite these challenges, ongoing development efforts and some market interest persist. Brooks himself acknowledges the future potential for humanoids, though he predicts forms that may include wheels and other non-human features, with broader availability likely beyond a decade. Startups like Y Combinator-backed Proception and Loomia are developing technologies to enhance robotic dexterity and tactile sensing. Furthermore, some companies are reporting early commercial interest; K-Scale Labs received over 100 pre-orders for its humanoid bot within five days, and Hugging Face recorded $1 million in sales for its Reachy Mini desktop robots shortly after opening preorders.
